Election 2017 as I see it.

It's election, year again with the General Election set down for 23rd September 2017.

There are a lot of unknowns in this election, and numerous people taking big risks. 

Firstly it is a different landscape with Bill English as leader as it was last time he lead National but there are a few things which I will cover off here in this article which I think will be critical for Election 2017.

This election I believe will be one where your vote (whatever it may be) will play a big part in the final outcome. One thing for sure is at this early stages there is such a mixed bag of poll results wherever you look. And unfortunately for National Fans not many of them seem to have National as the front runner any more. 

On the 2nd February 2017 Radio Live had a poll on their website which has some interesting results. View Here

This poll puts the top 5 in order as:

Greens 44%
Labour 25%
National 11%
NZ First 10%
The Opportunities Party 5%

Unfortunately what this poll doesn't say is how many people selected an option in this poll.

If you see the poll on the right hand side of our page.  Has the NZ First could win in a First Past the Post situation.

There is possibly some reasons for this such as this website might be more of what the likes of NZ First Voters are looking for, or that a smaller party voter might be more inclined to get a vote in a poll.

Either way you look at it Labour, NZ First and the Greens all appear on the top of the polls I am seeing (may be I aren't looking in the right places?) A pattern does appear to be forming and the publics patience with the National party is wearing thin. 

According to the One News Colmar Brunton figures the public believe the Economic outlook now is worse than it was in 2014. This is something that will end in almost death of the National party if they don't change those perceptions. Which will be hard especially when dangling political carrots in front of the voter too.

A few other things and No matter what way you want to look at it the Future of Peter Dunne and United Future relies on Ohariu, I don't think that is anywhere guaranteed and what makes it worse for Peter Dunne is that David Seymour and ACT Party are in much of the same boat. The exception is David Seymor and ACT are actually fighting to stay alive where Peter Dunne almost looks as though he is walking away. 

NZ First looks strong, seem to be gaining support in some rather unlikely places. I have a feeling this might be their strongest finishing in an election to date. That being said it does depend on a few things. And in likely Winston Style NZ First are unlikely to say who they will and won't work with. This may cost them with many wanting a change in Government may not risk another Winston / Bolger type of arrangement. 

Greens look strong, and are likely feeding off the MOU they have with Labour. This has to be one of their better election years in 2017. 

Labour are the ultimately the Alternative Government. Although its more of a joint venture between Labour and the Greens. It would be unlikely Labour would get the support required to govern without the Greens. 

Act is much the same as United Future. David Seymour needs to win Epson to have any chance of returning to Parliament. David Seymour is trying though which works in ACT's favour but will it be enough? I'm not too sure. If a decent candidate for Labour or even the Greens sat in Epson then National and ACT run the chance of splitting the vote. National if they want to help ACT can't run a candidate in Epson. 

Maori Party, needs to take a step back and look at what has happened over the last Decade. The party has lost support and Labour is gaining that support. For the Maori Party to survive long term they need to re asses where they stand. Don't make any rash we would like to work with National. But leave the door open. If it works out to be a National government, having the Maori Party around the table of Beehive has to be a benefit to the Maori people. But the Maori Party do have to seriously reasses there goals, and priorities I feel.

Winston has done a lot for Northland as his time for Northland as their MP. He has brought numerous issues to the forefront and you can expect that to continue if he is elected. National I think will throw everything at this seat to try and win it back. Which is only going to make Winston look better, and the efforts of Winston seem stronger for this region. 

I would hate to be a bookie and if a smaller party is to take the reigns as leader of the house, or even leader of the opposition now is the time. It is the best time to be a member of either the Greens or NZ First. All of the momentum seems to be with these two parties which seem to be playing the political play well. 

The Opportunities Party, I hold my breath but I really don't see them getting in power. If they do they need to win at least 1 seat. this is my gut feeling. And if Gareth Morgan is as he was on Willie and JT show then He has no plan for future political aspirations. He wants to make it short sharp and sweet make changes and then out of there. In other words he wants to by the changes he wants. Makes him absolutely no different to Kim Dot Com or Collin Craig. 

The last time there was a Leader Change of a political power mid term the results were disastrous for them. I feel the same will happen in 2017. Not because Bill English ran before and lost. It has nothing to do with that. The political landscape has changed dramatically since then. 

The biggest questions I think New Zealanders should be asking are:

How is the economy doing? 
What can the current setup do? and how can the alternative do it better?
If our economy is so strong why do we have so much debt? How can we reduce this?
How can we save public face and trust in Government Organizations?
How can we be assured our Children and Grandchildren are given the best education they possibly can?
How can we reverse the sky rocketting unemployment trend?
How can we fix a broken health system?
How can we expand our economy to better suit our export markets?
How can we all afford our housing? whether its for purchase or rent?
How can we all help support small to medium enterprises and startups?
How can we shrink the crime rate? and the population in prisons?
How can we make sure there is Justice for ALL?
How can we make sure we all reap the rewards of a good economy not just some?
How can we make sure that our planet is Clean and Green, and our water is safe to drink, and swim in?
How can we improve our border control and Defence powers in the growing world of unrest.

These I believe are just some of the questions that should be on all New Zealanders minds. And the answers should then form a picture in the persons mind about who would be best to run the country. But first of all don't just believe what you read or here, investigate for your self and make sure your decision what ever way you decide is an informed decision. 

I feel although it is early days there will be a change of Government. If National is going to govern again they either need to do it themselves, or with the help of Winston. What ever happens you can be assured Government this time Next year will look a fair bit different. 

This is solely my views, But have fairly strong basis for them. Please feel free to share your views or write an article to show your views.

Published by D Blair, Hamilton

 

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