Only a few months out from the election and latest poll figures, show some interesting statistics.

The Latest Roy Morgan Poll figures released on the 14th of July 2017 show support for the current Government is falling, and in particular due to the Todd Barclay scandal. 

Labour / Greens alliance have slightly edged ahead of National and seem to be gaining momentum, a number of key policies have been released now, which actually makes sense too I might admit. Labour are releasing Labour Policies and Greens Releasing theirs. 

The Teflon has worn off the National Party and things just haven't been the same since the poster boy (Sir John Key) left his position as Prime Minister. Maybe he knew the ship was sinking. And what has happened to the Media Spin Doctors that worked for Key. The Key Message out of their latest campaign add is "Let's Get Together" which gives the impression of Change. For a party in power that seems absolutely strange.

The results show Labour / Greens on 44%, National on 43%, NZ First on 8%, Maori Party 1.5%, ACT 1%, United Future 0%, Other 2.5% on these figures alone National's only chance of getting in is with a deal with NZ First, Their supporter base is diminishing, if you have been friends of National seems like people no longer want to be associated. On the other end of the Scale, Labour and Greens would also need NZ First, but the support partners of National are falling so it is anyone's guess at this stage.

Some things are becoming blatantly obvious, United Future has little chance of returning to Government (Unless it gains an Electorate seat), ACT will likely be gone, unless National do a deal and David Seymour gains a seat, not too sure how the public will want that to go down though. Maori Party can only get back with Electorate Seats, or by re evaluating their current situation, the relationship with the National Party has hurt them. NZ First I would suspect gain some momentum, and may even end up with their best performance at an Election. It appears that Gareth Morgan has wasted a huge amount of money just like Colin Craig. 

I think the election will be close, but there is a vibe that Labour would be more welcoming to NZ First than National, most certainly seem to be aligning themselves more to the NZ First direction which seems to be working for them at present. 

I don't think we will have a confirmed Government on Election Night and it will come down to who NZ First go with, but if the current trend of National Falling and Labour Gaining they may get to a point where they don't need NZ First. Some NZ First supporters also may vote for Labour or Greens to secure a change of Government if that is their highest priority. 

I strongly believe the issues of Pike River, Poverty, Immigration, Health, Education, Housing and Homelessness, Inequality, Justice, Accountability will be critical to the outcome. The gap between Rich and Poor in New Zealand could make or break for deciding the next government too.

Published by D Blair, Hamilton.

Roy Morgan Data has been referenced in this article.

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