Mainstream Media are considering this as a First Past the Post-Election saying National is in the box seat. I think they should be concerned, this is solely my opinion in this article but you need to stop thinking FPP logic and step back for a minute.
What do the numbers say about the election last night? There are some pretty big things to come out of the election last night, and most of it was predicted. It is close, it is anyone's game to win or lose, but National must be worried, their support partners have died a painful death.
The Main Stream Media are all stating that because National got the most votes they have to be in the box seat, that isn't really the case in the MMP Environment, they have no support partners, the only way they can get over the line is by joining up with a previous opposition party NZ First, as the National and ACT party (All of what was left of the previous government) can only muster 59 Seats. The Opposition parties, however, could muster together 61 seats with Labour, NZ First, and the Greens able to form a Government.
This means the ultimate decision lies with NZ First. Winston Peters and NZ First need to find out what the mood was for, was it for the same National / ACT or was it for Change. I think the mood was for change, people have had enough of National except for the National core voters this is reflected in the way the National Support parties have crumbled, United Future, Maori Party, have both been booted from parliament. Remember the last 3 years was a 4 headed monster being a National / ACT Government propped up by United Future and the Maori Party. The opposition was Labour NZ First and the Greens.
If you consider the options there are only really two options, either way puts David Seymour in a strange position of being Guaranteed in opposition the only one to be so. I kind of feel sorry for him but at least it gives ACT the chance to rebuild the party, or maybe they won't make the next election as the only reason he is there is because National propped him up.
TOP didn't make it, they were never going to make it, and when you consider the votes lost to them it could be a different story now. I wonder if he approached things the wrong way. He never intended in entering politics or becoming a politician that in my opinion put him in a worse position than Colin Craig in the last election so the writing was on the wall there.
Maori Party, what has happened here is what has sent a clear message and should be seen as a warning to the Maori Party, They may have been better off in opposition then getting in bed with National, That may even be the thinking of NZ First, we won't know.
This election was always going to be a nail-biter and boy has it delivered, one possibility and no one has talked about it, although NZ First is in the box seat and the only real winner of Election 2017 they could decide they would rather be in opposition than propping up either sides government, that would mean no government could get over the line and a re-election would be required, that could be interesting to see what happens from that point.
This election is set to be exciting for weeks to come yet. The decision 2017 will need to wait, and the Special Votes are yet to be counted and the final numbers won't be known for a couple weeks, so we are left not knowing who will form the next government on the night of the election.
This is ultimately how I predicted the election to fall, although I did think National may have had a closer vote to Labour, I presume the confusion surrounding several statements from the National Party played a part in that, The Fiscal Hole episode and the Raising Taxes statements from National which in essence was nothing but fake news scaremongering ironically seemed to work for National.
Election 2014, provided 4 Parties in Government and 3 in Opposition, Ironically now 2 of the 4 in Government are wiped off, and the 3 in Opposition have now got the most votes together as a collective than the 2 left that formed the previous government. It certainly does through up some curve balls this election.
Either way, the message has been sent to the Government, the road it was on cannot be followed, change is afoot no matter what the outcome of the election is.
Published by D Blair, Hamilton