Since we are now 3 Months away from election day we will take a quick look at the current situation and make my prediction. Things can change and 3 months in politics can be a long time sometimes, but there are a few factors I think which will make this a fairly interesting election.
Grab the popcorn, register to vote, and make sure you cast your vote this year, this is going to be a fairly full on election, as we deal with Covid-19, the economic aftermath, and this election has to referendum.
What ever your thoughts, or your vote, make sure you have your say.
The referendum this year is one, Legalization of Cannabis, and two the end of life amendment bill.
This election has the potential to be the first election (with MMP) where we may get a majority government. With labour definitely in the hot seat, it is amazing how things can turn, just last election National was so close to being able to govern, but falling short with only one friend to assist them.
Here is how we see the parties and what may happen to them:
LABOUR – Labour have led us through some pretty tough times, and none more so in recent times than the Covid-19 situation currently facing the world. The way in which we have effectively stamped out COVID-19 on our shores (In the general community atleast) is a testament to the way in which our government acted and handled the situation, we are the envy of the world. For this I think Labour is in a fairly strong position, things were ticking along nicely prior to covid, surpluses had flowed, and things were looking good, covid has definitely upset the world markets now though. I think Labour will go from zero to hero this election time, and my guess is even if they don’t need the likes of the Greens, or NZ First will likely bring them along with them, the combination has generally worked fairly well this time around.
NATIONAL – First semester of National in the opposition benches has seen some crazy behavior from that side of the house in particular of late. The mass exodus of MP’s maybe a sign of things to come, right now if I was on the list below position 20 I would be very worried, although it is likely they will get 30 MP’s I would still be worried, the party is fractured, in disarray and I am not too sure if Judith Collins is any better than any of the other 3 Leaders National has had since Election 2017, Yes that is right this trimester has seen 4 leaders of National. Judith Collins has been shrouded in controversy in the past, and has a very divisive nature. What may work in her favor though is her passion, and she is able to get the limelight. Personally I think the National party need to work on a few things for 2023 otherwise they face a long time in opposition. Understanding their party and their MP’s would be stage one, and understanding how MMP works would be another. The only friend the have left to help them over the line is David Seymour, this is due to National killing off there support partners and absorbing their voter base, which maybe starting to head for Labour.
NZ First – Currently New Zealand’s 3rd largest political party, I don’t see too much changing in this regard, however I do think they will be lucky to have the 9 remain, I predict they may loose a few members, but I expect them to be back. NZ First has been sticking up for the smaller guy for some time, and has achieved alot for the elderly, when the larger parties have tried to cut back on the elderly. Shane Jones has also been rallying for the regions, and offering growth funding for many projects, which is a good sign for New Zealand as a whole.
Greens – Currently New Zealand’s 4th Largest party. The greens have been very quite to this time around, I am not too sure as to why, but I expect there vote will take a hit, I predict alot of there votes will be taken by Labour but some of the smaller parties may also receive some. I expect them to be back, but in a limited capacity.
ACT – or more to the point David Seymour, he has been doing whatever throughout the Covid-19 situation to try and get coverage, whilst it may have worked somewhat during Level 4, The only reason he is in there, is because of Epsom Voters voting for the ACT Candidate. But the question has to be asked, he is effectively an Independent MP, so what exactly has he done for Epsom Voters? He considers himself a party, but a party of 1 isn’t much of a party, especially considering how he got there in the first place.